Tuesday, March 3, 2015

Longer term

Initial indications are that a mid-March period starting about the 13th will be milder than normal, a thaw so to speak.

However, indications are also that this will not last indefinitely.  Late March into early April is looking cooler than normal.

Snow maps

To illustrate my previous post.

Sunday, March 1, 2015

Pushed south again...

As you may have noticed, we didn't get near the snow today as earlier predicted. The models are underestimating the strength of the arctic highs coming down.  As such, the system is getting shuffled south.  Similarly, the system on Tuesday/Wednesday is getting pushed south and split such that a weaker system is affecting us late Tuesday with a 5-10 cm snow.  The stronger system will be farther south (W. Virginia) giving 12+" dump in that area.

Foiled again.

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Pattern shift ahead

Beginning this week, the mean trough position will shift west.  To date the trough has been centered over eastern North America.  Over the next couple weeks, that will shift to the center of the continent.  That will allow southern branch systems (Colorado lows) to affect the eastern side of the trough, ie Ontario.   Sunday will see the first of these systems affecting Ontario with Ottawa catching the northern edge per current model output.  The bigger deal, again according to the models, is the system on Wednesday, currently predicted to give us 20-30 cms of snow, possibly mixed with ice rain, a messy situation.

Stay tuned.

Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Thursday, February 19, 2015

And its gone...

Again in unison, the models have backed off the weekend for us, moving it south and weaker.   The fact that all models showed the back and forth shift leads me to believe that there was something about the initial conditions dataset yesterday that caused the shift.  That has been corrected and now all models are putting the majority of the snow well south of us.
I am beginning to despair that Ottawa will get any major snow event this season.  Yet hope remains: March in like a lion...

Wednesday, February 18, 2015

Interesting development in the models

As you may remember, a couple days ago the Euro was dumping us with snow this coming weekend.  In following runs it was a lot less enthusiastic and more south, coming in line with other models.

However in the latest runs of the GFS, Euro, NG, and Canadian, the track has moved north.  The Canadian so much so that it shows the main band of snow to our north and the Ottawa area has a change over to rain.   Now I don't think that will happen.  I think the Euro and GFS will be more correct with the storm track just south of the lakes, giving us a 10-15 cm dump on Sunday.

Look for forecasts for the weekend to change later this afternoon once the models are processed into the forecast.

Coldest part of the planet..

Is us...relative to average that is.